Growth of CryonicsFri, Aug 12, 2005; by David Stodolsky.
Cryonics Institute Suspendees (log scale) by Year
Lighter data points are not included in the trend estimate. Ten suspendees received from the American Cryonics Society in 2004 are not included.
CI suspendees projected to 2044
Based upon figures up to 2004, in ten years we expect 328 suspendees at CI, in 20 1607, in 30 7883, in 40 38658. Suspendee population is increasing by 17 percent per year. Thus, it is doubling about every five years. These results suggest that suspendee population will grow by a thousand in 2033 and by over five thousand in 2044.
Cryonics Institute Members (log scale) by Year
Red data points are not included in the trend estimate.
The prediction is based upon an exponential model fit to the data starting in 1985, when CI had 16 members. Thus, it is based upon 20 years of data. The earlier years were eliminated, because the slope of the line on the log plot was clearly different from that starting in 1985.
In ten years we expect 2,314 members at CI, in 20 12,712, in 30 69,832, in 40 383,616.
Member population is increasing by about 17 percent per year. Thus, it is more than doubling every five years. These results suggest that suspendee population will grow by almost eight thousand in 2033 and by over sixty thousand in 2044.
Lighter data points are not included in the trend estimate.
From 1998 on, growth seems much faster, with a doubling time closer to three years - 23 percent per year. The Year by Period (1985-1997 vs. 1998-2004) interaction is highly significant (P=0.0018). After this prediction was made, Dr. Ettinger noted that CI established its Web site around 1997. If this faster growth rate continues, member population will be over five million in 2044, with an increase of about 1.2 million in that year.
CI Membership projected to 2044
Member growth is exceeding suspendee growth by about 6 percent per year based on data from 1998-2004.
Last update: Wednesday, December 22, 2010 at 11:28:49 AM.